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Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome (a bit early) Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC) Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready? I'll go with: SWIO: ' 14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones. '''Aus. Region: ' 15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones. 'S. Pac: ' 18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones. I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC) SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC) There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... ''Ryan1000'' 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : My bad for creating the betting pool.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC) : ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.''10''[[User Talk: Cyclone10|''Q.]] [[User Blog: Cyclone10|''VEST]] 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC) : The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) ( ) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 05R.CHANDA 99S.INVEST Inside the Mozambique Channel.--Cyclone10 00:05, January 6, 2012 (UTC) This storm looks like it could cause some serious flooding, but i'm not expecting signifigant development of this system. Possibly it could become a minimal cyclone, but that's probrably it. I would be a bit surprised if we don't get Chanda at all though. BTW, we forgot to add the damage total section in the betting pools; I just put that in now. ''Ryan1000'' 00:12, January 6, 2012 (UTC) It looks better on satellite now.--Cyclone10 02:38, January 6, 2012 (UTC) TCFA alert!--Cy10 21:16, January 6, 2012 (UTC) Here comes Chanda... ''Ryan1000'' 01:03, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Not yet...--Cy10 03:55, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Still not yet...--Cy10 19:13, January 7, 2012 (UTC) It probably be upgrade at any moment Allanjeffs 21:49, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 05S On Wikipedia, it says this is a zone of disturbed weather, but I'm not sure if that counts as a tropical cyclone. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:44, January 7, 2012 (UTC) Now it has been designated Tropical Cyclone 05S by the JTWC. And no, we don't have Chanda quite yet. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:48, January 7, 2012 (UTC) It's so close to becoming Chanda though... As I said earlier, it will probrably intensify into a category 1 storm or so before making landfall in Madagascar's southwest coast. The current forecast only takes it to a tropical storm, but given the way it looks, i'd be surprised if it doesn't become a minimal cyclone. ''Ryan1000'' 23:53, January 7, 2012 (UTC) You mean a moderate tropical storm?--Cy10 00:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Well, yeah, but anyhow, I still think Chanda will become a C1 cyclone in the future. And we can leave it as Tropical Cyclone 05S in the storms header, there's no need to put in so many words. Wunderground has it as 05S, JTWC has it as 05S, we should too. ''Ryan1000'' 01:01, January 8, 2012 (UTC) I don`t think it will be much maybe a moderate to severe tropical storm Allanjeffs 02:03, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda Named and at 35kts 10-min. Yqt1001 15:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC) It won't get strong before its Madagascar landfall according to the official forecast (unless it pulls a Lorenzo or Humberto and becomes a tropical cyclone). Andrew444TalkBlog 15:29, January 8, 2012 (UTC) I knew it was not going to be much just a rainmaker Allanjeffs 19:48, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ...and there goes the last advisory by JTWC..--Cy10 23:09, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Made landfall and should dissipate soon. I don't expect to see much damage other than rainfall. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:48, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression Chanda Is it a fail?--Cy10 03:04, January 9, 2012 (UTC) At least it form Allanjeffs 12:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC) I was expecting worse... I guess I stand corrected. ''Ryan1000'' 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Chanda And gone...--Cy10 21:04, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Nope... its still here. —12R. ''' 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC) 06R.DANDO Tropical Disturbance 06R New disturbance here - not gonna become a depression. —''12R. '' 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC) But it's going to last for a long time.--Cy10 22:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC) And it looks subtropical.--Cy10 02:40, January 12, 2012 (UTC) Subtropical Depression 06R I stand corrected.--Cy10 13:13, January 12, 2012 (UTC) Still there....--Cy10 18:06, January 13, 2012 (UTC) We should see this becoming a significant tropical system by the time this makes landfall. —''12R. '' 21:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC) Low chance.--Cy10 01:15, January 14, 2012 (UTC) I personally believe this could be Moderate Tropical Storm Dando in a couple days. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:50, January 14, 2012 (UTC) : I would like to take that a little further and bring it to Severe TS status. —''12R. '' 01:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 06R OR it doesn't develop at all!--Cy10 18:32, January 14, 2012 (UTC) You WILL find that it redevelops. —''12R. '' 18:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC) Maybe time will tell Allanjeffs 19:42, January 14, 2012 (UTC) Subtropical Depression 06R (again) Redeveloped better than ever, now a 40mph STD in 10-min winds. Expected to make the transition to tropical just before landfall. Yqt1001 15:43, January 15, 2012 (UTC) What did I tell ya? Its Kiewii btw. 15:48, January 15, 2012 (UTC) But it might not make it for the transition.--Cy10 16:09, January 15, 2012 (UTC) Subtropical Depression Dando Got named, not expected to become tropical anymore. Yqt1001 18:35, January 15, 2012 (UTC) At least it was name its better than nothing Allanjeffs 22:01, January 15, 2012 (UTC) I knew it would get named! And also, we now have more named storms than last year. Andrew444TalkBlog 00:05, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Yeah that is incredible we may have an active season after allAllanjeffs 00:58, January 16, 2012 (UTC) I'm not that surprised, last year's SWIO season was like a 1914 AHS, the least active year ever, or in a very long time. This time(or year) though, the SPac's been a bit behind schedule. Ryan1000 15:51, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Dando has made landfall.--Cy10 19:35, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Then it should be gone soon. Andrew444TalkBlog 21:53, January 16, 2012 (UTC) Should probable be out at any momentAllanjeffs 05:01, January 17, 2012 (UTC) No longer an invest.--Cy10 05:36, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Dando Gone.--Cy10 05:37, January 17, 2012 (UTC) I knew he will be out at any momentAllanjeffs 12:46, January 17, 2012 (UTC) 07R.ETHEL AOI: South of the Chagos We have really got to keep an eye on this one - forecast to intensify into a TC or ITC. —''12R. '' 21:24, January 16, 2012 (UTC) I can't wait to get our "E" storm! Andrew444TalkBlog 21:56, January 16, 2012 (UTC) We are really moving fast this year with name storms Allanjeffs 00:17, January 17, 2012 (UTC) 94S.INVEST Now a invest.--Cy10 02:11, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Anyone more think Ethel is coming?Allanjeffs 03:12, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Yup.--Cy10 03:43, January 17, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 07 We are going to see some rapid strengthening. This should become a STS in about two days time. —''12R. '' 12:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Here we go again! Andrew444TalkBlog 13:17, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 07 Yup... its coming. But I would rather watch the one in the Mozambique Channel, since this one isn't going to effect land (maybe Antarctica?). —''12R. '' 15:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Kiewii, how would a storm affect Antarctica (You misspelled "affect" in your previous post FYI)? Andrew444TalkBlog 22:52, January 18, 2012 (UTC) : I don't care about how I spell. You'll find that a storm affects Antarctica everyday. —''12R. '' 22:54, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 07 Strengthening rapidly. —''12R. '' 01:17, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Can't wait to see Ethel. Andrew444TalkBlog 02:14, January 19, 2012 (UTC) This thing looks rather nice. It already looks like a hurricane-strength storm based on the sattelite imagery. I'd be surprised if we don't see at least our first SWIO major from this. At least it will be a fishspinner(for the most part), unless it comes close enough to Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 03:34, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 07S JTWC update out. Very good chance of RI sometime in the next 2 days, 85kts peak if it doesn't RI, but RI appears to be inevitable at this point. Yqt1001 03:37, January 19, 2012 (UTC) I'd be baffled if this one doesn't explode. It's in prime conditions for explosive development and the small circulation will only reinforce intensification. I'd place the peak of this one as a category 4 storm, with an outside chance at cat. 5. Ryan1000 03:59, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Looks like this would become Ethel and has everything in its favor to explode like Edzani did right know this Ocean is becoming very active i would not be very surprise if Giovanna forms next week at the pace we are going right knowAllanjeffs 04:05, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel Expected to strengthen into a TC. —''12R. '' 07:52, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Anytime now, Ethel... You're in ripe conditions for explosive strengthening, why aren't you doing it? Ryan1000 18:33, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Ethel Maybe you were a little too early Ryan? —''12R. '' 18:44, January 19, 2012 (UTC) :Ethel's core isn't in a position where it can easily RI as of the last MW image a while ago. Might be now though (likely is). Yqt1001 20:17, January 19, 2012 (UTC) ::Now it looks more impressive, but Ethel doesn't have much time before she's going to be running into colder waters and stronger shear. She better get on with it. Ryan1000 00:14, January 20, 2012 (UTC) ::Ethel is now a hurricane in our scale right? if she wants to start strengthening like Funso it better start nowAllanjeffs 02:31, January 20, 2012 (UTC) ::not more forecast to become a major noe I expect one of this Allanjeffs 11:50, January 20, 2012 (UTC) One person killed from this storm (most likely in the Rodrigues). 12:39, January 20, 2012 (UTC) Ethel won't be with us for long...she should be extratropical in about three days' time. Andrew444TalkBlog 12:59, January 20, 2012 (UTC) :Ethel is falling out of place, it was an 85mph (1-min) cyclone, but now it doesn't show any signs of being that strong. Yqt1001 13:21, January 20, 2012 (UTC) ::Wasn't as strong as it could've been, but it still didn't affect land altogether. Ryan1000 17:25, January 21, 2012 (UTC) ::I think this is a minimal storm.Allanjeffs 00:44, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :::It's starting to become extratropical.--Cy10-- 05:45, January 22, 2012 (UTC) It should peak at 950 mb extratropical. —''12R. '' 09:29, January 22, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (2nd time) Weakened to an MTS just as its becomes extratropical. —''12R. '' 13:09, January 22, 2012 (UTC) : Last advisory by JTWC.--Cy10-- 17:27, January 22, 2012 (UTC) : It was interesting to track this storm that was forecast to become a formidable cyclone because of favorable conditions and only reach cat 1.Allanjeffs 19:01, January 22, 2012 (UTC) Extratropical Cyclone Ethel Now gone.--Cy10-- 21:10, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :And as always, I will be tracking the extratropical cyclone. —''12R. '' 21:24, January 22, 2012 (UTC) Now attained peak intensity with 962 mb. —''12R. '' 18:49, January 26, 2012 (UTC) 90S.INVEST 90S.INVEST North of Madagascar.--Cy10-- 20:48, January 27, 2012 (UTC) Winds already getting up to 30 mph. —''12R. '' 20:56, January 27, 2012 (UTC) Aaand as Funso goes out, a new one goes in. This could be Giovanna with ease, though it may need to get it's act together a bit more before that happens. Currently, this invest looks a bit ragged. Ryan1000 21:48, January 27, 2012 (UTC) Gone.--Cy10-- 17:51, January 29, 2012 (UTC) ::: Nope - still here. —''12R. '' 17:58, January 29, 2012 (UTC) :::: Not as an invest.--Cy10-- 19:06, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Australian Region 07U.HEIDI Tropical Low 07U New one here - cyclone watch issued for WA. Of course that means 07U has the possibility of becoming Heidi. Some good news for the guys in WA - the GFS previously had this making landfall as a C3 (ozzie), but now only a C1 (ozzie). —''13R. '' 11:45, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Heidi Now a TC. —''13R. '' 17:54, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Not sure what to expect from this other than some rainfall in northern Australia. Ryan1000 18:37, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :::Does anyone else see anything wrong with how the forecast calls for Heidi to remain a TS strength cyclone hundreds of miles inland..over desert..? Unless it explodes to a huge storm I don't see how it will even last that far inland. Yqt1001 20:21, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :::Maybe it would i don`t remember which was but it really stay as a cyclone and i think she will be stronger than a cat 1 cyclone Allanjeffs 20:24, January 10, 2012 (UTC) ::::Yqt, remember that some Austrailian cyclones last for a really long time inland.--Cy10 21:03, January 10, 2012 (UTC) :::::Now expected to become a C2 cyclone. --Cy10 03:10, January 11, 2012 (UTC) Now a Cat 2. —''12R. '' 07:13, January 11, 2012 (UTC) I knew this was going to be stronger than anticipated it Allanjeffs 12:46, January 11, 2012 (UTC) It won't get stronger before landfall. Andrew444TalkBlog 13:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC) :Yes Cyclone10, they last long overland because of their size, but Heidi is very tiny. Yqt1001 13:23, January 11, 2012 (UTC) ::@Yqt:Australia may be the world's driest continent, but as dry as they are, they also see rainfall in their rainy season which is heavy enough to sometimes cause floods. There may not be as much water on land as there is out at sea, but the water on the ground during floods or heavy rainfall can be used as a partial fuel for tropical storms, even though it isn't as much as out to sea, it can keep them alive for some time inland. Some storms in the Australian region even form over land. Their proxmitity to high SST's offshore can also have an impact on their intensity just inland or just offshore. Though I personally don't think Heidi will last that long inland, it could emerge off of Australia again. Ryan1000 21:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC) :::Last advisory by JTWC since it made landfall.--Cy10 21:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::Made landfall with 10-min winds of 70mph. JTWC said 1-min of 50mph? Anyways, interesting fact Ryan. Yqt1001 22:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC) :::::The Australian scale uses strongest km/hr gusts, but that's still rather odd... Ryan1000 23:45, January 11, 2012 (UTC) ::::::Now down to C1.--Cy10 02:18, January 12, 2012 (UTC) :::::::As said earlier, Heidi's not done with us yet. If you look at the sattelite imagery, she's actually staying intact rather nicely over land. There is a possibility it could emerge off of Australia again, but hopefully flooding won't be that bad, if any. Ryan1000 14:59, January 12, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Low Heidi Down to a tropical low, but as Ryan said, this storm is staying intact over land. —''12R. '' 16:03, January 12, 2012 (UTC) It looks like we are going to be seeing another Tropical Low forming just about where Heidi formed, and will move west into the SWIO. It was first mentioned in the TWO at 4AM. —''12R. '' 18:23, January 12, 2012 (UTC) So if it develop in a cyclone would be Iggy right? weird name Allanjeffs 01:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC) If it's still in the Australian region, it will keep it's original name, so it would be renamed Heidi. I believe it would reccieve a different name if it crosses into the SWIO basin however, like Lee-Ariel in 2007. Ryan1000 02:04, January 13, 2012 (UTC) That is correct. Andrew444TalkBlog 02:43, January 13, 2012 (UTC) Thanks but I was talking of the tropical low that 12R.KIWII was talking about Allanjeffs 03:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC) :::Ryan, that rule was changed in 2008 (I think) so that storms only receive one name. I don't think that a situation where a storm gets two formal names can ever happen again. Yqt1001 03:56, January 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::Its not gonna develop into a cyclone in the next three days, but by looking at models, it could develop into a TC or ITC in the next week. —''12R. '' 10:29, January 13, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Heidi Gone.--Cy10 17:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC) The tropical low (previously discussed above) has formed (not mentioned by BoM) near 15S 105E. —''12R. '' 17:37, January 13, 2012 (UTC) @Yqt:I'm not sure if that rule still exists today or not for AUS/SWIO crossovers, but if it does, the only way we can tell for sure is if a storm crosses from AUS to SWIO this year... Anyhow, Heidi could regenerate off of Australia, though that's not likely. Ryan1000 17:59, January 13, 2012 (UTC) 98S.INVEST AOI: Northwest Gulf of Caprentaria Medium chance. —''12R. '' 08:56, January 21, 2012 (UTC) As of now, it doesn't look too impressive. Australia has been unusually dry this year. After they saw record flooding in last year's tropical cyclone season, we could be looking at one of their driest tropical cyclone seasons in history. The lack of activity in the Australian region isn't surprising, but the lack of South Pacific activity is. This year could closely resemble 2009 for SHem, except SWIO will be more active, and I don't know if Australia will see a Laurence-like storm this year. Ryan1000 14:42, January 21, 2012 (UTC) 98S.INVEST This should make landfall. —''12R. '' 10:27, January 22, 2012 (UTC) TCFA alert.--Cy10-- 02:53, January 25, 2012 (UTC) : Lol you keep on saying Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert alert :P It has made landfall. —''12R. '' 08:28, January 25, 2012 (UTC) :: I don't care, Kiewii. 98S still have some time to form.--Cy10-- 13:15, January 25, 2012 (UTC) :::Stop acting like that just because I said Katia wasn't a great storm. —''12R. '' 15:27, January 25, 2012 (UTC) ::::TCFA cancelled as 98S dissipates.--Cy10-- 03:49, January 26, 2012 (UTC) :::::...or not. 98S still looks good despite so far inland.--Cy10-- 20:51, January 27, 2012 (UTC) 11U.IGGY 97S.INVEST New one here south of Jakarta. —''12R. '' 21:48, January 21, 2012 (UTC) BoM saying this will become Cyclone Iggy. —''12R. '' 10:59, January 22, 2012 (UTC) This looks like a potent storm should be Iggy in the next few daysAllanjeffs 20:34, January 23, 2012 (UTC) : Nope, the BoM have it peaking at 35 mph now. Wont have long to become a cat 1 anyway since it should make landfall where Heidi did. —''12R. '' 20:45, January 23, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Low 11U We are gonna see Iggy. Should peak at Cat 3 strength. TCFA issued too. —''12R. '' 12:32, January 24, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Iggy Iggy forms expect to become a cat 3 cyclone.Allanjeffs 20:28, January 25, 2012 (UTC) It's expected to curve away from Australia before making landfall. We shouldn't see much out of this in terms of impacts. Ryan1000 21:13, January 25, 2012 (UTC) Be careful with Iggy Ryan now expect to reach cat 4 and base on Australia Center not JTWC Iggy will be making laandfall at cat 4 strength.Allanjeffs 11:18, January 26, 2012 (UTC) Northwestern Australia isn't a big fan of strong tropical cyclone landfalls and Cyclone Iggy could either miss Australia to the west or smash ashore near Exmouth on Cape Range like Cyclone Vance in 1999, or a tad further east. That would be very bad for the folks there. It could also make landfall on the central western coast of Australia, but landfalls there are somewhat rare and not generally seen. Iggy may change that, but I won't count on it yet. Ryan1000 13:11, January 26, 2012 (UTC) Hmmm...Iggy hasn't been moving too much rescently but it is still expected to make landfall in Australia as a category 4 cyclone(on their scale; it would be a category 2-3 on ours), and the area around Onslow is most likely going to be under the greatest threat from Iggy. Ryan1000 18:35, January 27, 2012 (UTC) Iggy would probable make landfall in Australia but I do not know at what intensity.Allanjeffs 00:55, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Iggy's been moving rather slowly and now the official forecast from the BOM calls for it to curve away from Australia without making landfall, like the JTWC indicated. That could change, but hopefully Iggy will stay at sea. Ryan1000 01:18, January 29, 2012 (UTC) What a fail. It reached its peak of 55 kts.. now weakening. —''12R. '' 13:15, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Maybe for now it may re-strength later,but it really surprise me that it weakens I didn`t see that coming.Allanjeffs 15:02, January 29, 2012 (UTC) : Not down to a C1. No longer expected to strenghen again....what a fail.--Cy10-- 17:56, January 29, 2012 (UTC) :: Not yet. It is expected to parallel western Australia before coming ashore near Perth in the next 3 days or so. As I said, central Western Australia isn't a fan of strong tropical cyclone landfalls, but this one could be a bit blustery for the folks there. It's not a failure yet. Ryan1000 18:46, January 29, 2012 (UTC) :: Yeah he still has potential it still could make landfall don`t put him out until he disippites.Allanjeffs 19:38, January 29, 2012 (UTC) South Pacific Region 03F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 03F Here it is.--Cy10 23:17, January 8, 2012 (UTC) This storm is already the strongest storm of the 2011-12 SPAC cyclone season. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:26, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 03F Gone. —''13R. '' 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC) 04F.NONAME Tropical Depression 04F No THIS is the strongest storm of the season so far. —''13R. '' 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC) ...by 1 mbar..--Cy10 00:42, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Wow! The SPAC has just blown up! Andrew444TalkBlog 01:41, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 04F Done now. —''13R. '' 23:44, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Big fail.--Cy10 00:00, January 10, 2012 (UTC) Yeah i can`t argue with this one btw this are depressions? or just like low medium high the types of classifications we use in the Atlantic?Allanjeffs 04:50, January 10, 2012 (UTC) 05F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 05F New one here. —''13R. '' 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC) Each disturbance surpassing the other by a couple of millibar when is the good action start on this season?Allanjeffs 01:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC) 04F and 05F are now tying for the strongest storm of the season. But remember.. this is only January. We still have a lot more storms to come. —''13R. '' 10:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Yeah, February is the peak of the SHem season, and their March is like our October, so that bears watching too. Right now, this is the equivalent of the SHem's August. They're just getting warmed up. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC) Does this disturbance even exist now ? Allanjeffs 03:49, January 11, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 05F Gone.--Cy10 03:51, January 11, 2012 (UTC) 06F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 06F New one here.--Cy10 03:19, January 21, 2012 (UTC) What is the probability of this becoming a tropical cyclone low,medium,or high?Allanjeffs 04:54, January 21, 2012 (UTC) It's only low to moderate for now. It's not expected to become much. For future reference Allan, go here. If you want to go more specific, click on "Warnings, advisories, and other disturbance information". You can see a list of all of the TC forecasting centers if you scroll down on WUndergrounds tropical weather page. Ryan1000 09:51, January 21, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 06F Now a depression. Has anyone noticed a pattern? We've had a TDi, TD, TDi, TD, TDi, TD. —''12R. '' 21:33, January 21, 2012 (UTC) Until now that you show it I see but could this be our first name in this basin we will see.Allanjeffs 00:49, January 22, 2012 (UTC) : Probably not, Allan. The probability is getting smaller.--Cy10-- 05:48, January 22, 2012 (UTC) : Does this system is even alive?Allanjeffs 23:31, January 24, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 06F Gone :/ —''12R. '' 23:39, January 24, 2012 (UTC) 07F.NONAME 99P.INVEST Lets keep an eye on this system... —''12R. '' 23:39, January 24, 2012 (UTC) The SPac has been a wasteland for most of this season; all I can see on the sattelite imagery is a strong band of wind shear streching across most of the basin. The SWIO is doing fine and Australia isn't half-bad, but at this rate, we could see a repeat of 2008-09 for the SPac, with a really late start and hardly any storms. This invest could could change that, though if that shear doesn't abate, then it will die out as well. Ryan1000 01:32, January 25, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 07F Come on... you can do this... —''12R. '' 01:01, January 26, 2012 (UTC) The weird TDi/TD pattern continues... I hope this breaks the trend. Andrew444TalkBlog 02:37, January 26, 2012 (UTC) : Now the strongest storm of the year.--Cy10-- 00:06, January 29, 2012 (UTC) :: No.. based on official data, it isn't the strongest storm. Based on unofficial data, it is. —''12R. '' 00:10, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 07F The pattern has been broken! High chance of this becoming Cyril! —''12R. '' 08:19, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Yeah we may have our first name storm in this basin.Allanjeffs 15:09, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Wouldn't be surprised. It's currently moving southeast with some intensification, but how strong it will get I do not know. Ryan1000 18:42, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Our first ever TDi Advisory of the season has been issued on this system. —''12R. '' 00:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC) 08F.NONAME Tropical Depression 08F And it continues again... —''12R. '' 08:17, January 26, 2012 (UTC) The CMC, NGP have this becoming Tropical Cyclone Cyril. —''12R. '' 12:54, January 26, 2012 (UTC) : Currently this one is only at a low chance for the next 24 to 48 hours, but that could easily change as indicated by RSMC Nadi. It's not expected to become super-powerful as of yet. Ryan1000 13:16, January 26, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 08F Gone.--Cy10-- 00:03, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Like all the failiures we have this year in this basin.Allanjeffs 00:57, January 29, 2012 (UTC) SPac has been rather modest for most of this year; I really expected a lot more from the second-most active basin in SHem, but now we're probrably not going to get our first storm until February here, and most likely a down year. A February start here is the equivalent of getting an Atlantic start in September. Unbelievable. After a record-setting season last year with Yasi, we could be looking at one of the least active SPac seasons in history. Ryan1000 01:30, January 29, 2012 (UTC) It could be one of the least active season in the SPac but it still could create a monster like Yasi is still not over and I at least expect 3 names.Allanjeffs 02:03, January 29, 2012 (UTC) This season is beginning to remind me of the 1941 and 1914 AHS's and last year's SWIO season. Andrew444TalkBlog 14:23, January 29, 2012 (UTC) The fact we did not have an active season up until now doesn't mean we will stay dead, though it sure looks that way now. Tropical Cyclone Percy of 2005 was one of the mightiest south Pacific cyclones on record and it didn't form until March. Olaf formed around this time of year and also caused lots of damage so we can't say we will stay dead. 1941 still remains the most rescent Atlantic hurricane season to begin in September, but that year still featured two powerful major hurricanes which ravaged Central America and southern Florida. We could have a slow start but rapid end like you mentioned with 1941, or we could have a dead season for good, like 1914. Personally, I think we'll get a major hurricane at some point. Ryan1000 18:32, January 29, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: AUS: *Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted. *Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one? *Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts. *Iggy - ? --Cy10-- 02:56, January 26, 2012 (UTC) Mine: AUS: #Fina - 0% - No impact. #Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment? #Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad. #Iggy - TBA - Still Active SPAC: Andrew444TalkBlog 22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. —''13R. '' 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC) : So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?--Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444TalkBlog 22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC) :: Here's the link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336578.--Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC) Time for mine. #Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail #Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season #Heidi: 5% - Meh —''12R. '' 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC) My turn : 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ? : 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going : 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him : Allanjeffs 00:50, January 22, 2012 (UTC)